Projection of Inpatient Bed Needs at Andalas University Hospital Until 2030: A Retrospective Analysis of Elderly Utilization and Hospital Capacity
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.69855/laceri.v2i2.724Keywords:
Hospital Bed Demand, Population Aging, Capacity Planning, Inpatient Utilization, Health Facility Investment, ForecastingAbstract
The increasing proportion of the elderly population has raised the demand for inpatient services, requiring hospitals to implement evidence-based bed capacity planning. Andalas University Hospital has not yet developed a projection of inpatient bed requirements through 2030 based on trends in elderly service utilization. This study aimed to project inpatient bed requirements through 2030. A quantitative study with a retrospective longitudinal design was conducted using secondary data from medical records and daily inpatient census reports from 2020–2025 at Andalas University Hospital, Padang. The unit of analysis comprised hospitalized patients aged ≥60 years, totaling 5,482 observations (total sampling). Data were collected through document review and reconciliation of medical records, daily census, and management reports. Bed requirements were calculated using the formula: Bed = treatment days/(365 × target BOR), with a target BOR of 75–85%. Data analysis included descriptive statistics, linear trend analysis, and simple linear regression. The average BOR was 71.8%, ALOS 5.6 days, BTO 47.2 times/year, and TOI 2.3 days. The proportion of elderly patients increased by 6.8% annually (p<0.001). Regression analysis demonstrated a significant relationship between increasing elderly admissions and bed requirements (β=0.81; 95% CI: 0.65–0.97; R²=0.76; p<0.001). Based on the model, bed requirements are projected to increase from 220 beds in 2025 to 287 beds in 2030 (95% prediction interval: 276–298 beds). These projections can support phased bed expansion, optimization of human resources, budgeting, supporting facilities, strategic planning, inpatient capacity evaluation, and geriatric service development. Bed capacity should be gradually increased to maintain service efficiency and support hospital resource planning. These findings are projective and indicate associative rather than causal relationships.
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